2009年7月2日 星期四

A visit to Highgate Cemetery, London

..... entry fee £3, quite bourgeois.


Karl Heinrich Marx (May 5, 1818–March 14, 1883) was a German philosopher, political economist, historian, political theorist, sociologist, communist and revolutionary credited as the founder of communism.

Marx summarized his approach to history and politics in the opening line of the first chapter of The Communist Manifesto (1848): “The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.” Marx argued that capitalism, like previous socioeconomic systems, will produce internal tensions which will lead to its destruction. Just as capitalism replaced feudalism, socialism will in its turn replace capitalism and lead to a stateless, classless society called pure communism which will emerge after a transitional period, the "dictatorship of the proletariat", a period sometimes referred to as the "workers state" or "workers' democracy"

Of course, the world did not go as he day-dreamed (though the world did paid huge cost of this social-experiment).

Despite Marx's failed approach to history and politics, he did have acute observation on living condition of people in modern age.

"In emerging industrial production under capitalism, workers inevitably lose control of their lives and selves, in not having any control of their work. Workers never become autonomous, self-realized human beings in any significant sense, except the way the bourgeois want the worker to be realized " -- Marx's observation of alienation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_alienation)

Surprisingly, the world has not changed a lot, feeling of "alienation" still very valid nowaday in air-conditioned office.

“ The philosophers have only interpreted the world in various ways—the point however is to change it "---- Engels's version of the 11th Thesis on Feuerbach

If Engels visit China coal mine today and update his book "The Condition of the Working Class in England in 1844" ---- "The Condition of the Working Class in China in 2009". Ironically, he will be surprised how little has been changed.


We do not have the so-called "solution" to "cure" the world. Indeed, we may not able to change the world. But the point is if we interprete the world in insightful ways, we can always make our own life better, happlier and more meaningful.

I found this two-hour philosophical documentary film (written & presented by Alain de Botton) very relevent to current modern society. Wish it inspire you somehow too.


Part 1


Part 2

Part 3

2009年6月24日 星期三

推綠壩工信部精準違反四條國法

練乙錚

「綠壩」事件,本涉政府應否及如何管制網上資訊,但在中國大陸的特定施政環境裏,卻同時引起政府行為的合法性問題;這方面的討論方興未艾,但上周中宣部通知各媒體及宣傳部門,「要加大正面引導力度、不要刊發質疑和批評性的言論」,有關討論便終止,十分可惜。國內近年強調依法治國,強調黨和政府都必須在憲法和法律的範圍內運作;這次推出「綠壩」,是政府行為,牽頭的工信部是中央一級機關,一舉一動全國觸目,其守法與否,在在影響今後全國各地(包括特區)各級黨政機構的守法實踐。因此,小心把工信部在此事上的行為比照我國有關法律,很有益處。

首先講工信部守法的一面。○八年一月十六日,信息產業部為徵集網站過濾軟件,發出緊急招標通知(註1);二十一日,《中國政府採購網》正式登出招標邀請函,申請入標的供應商須立即提交過濾軟件樣品,截止日期為二十五日(註2),前後合共五個工作天。行動如此急促,能否有效徵集競爭者,是一個問題。香港特區政府入標期一般最短三周,世貿標準則是四十天。截標後,工信部鄭重對傳媒說,招標依足《招投標法》和《政府採購法》,程序合法性無可置疑。大家姑且接受工信部的講法。

不過,入標期限訂得那麼緊,最後中標的兩間公司此前都藉藉無名,產品質量現在發覺原來十分粗糙(更有剽竊國內外其他廠家技術之嫌),得標價卻超高,故工信部實有必要公開更多資料,證明在採購過程裏,官商之間並無「打龍通」等其他不法之舉。

其餘講工信部違法之處。

兩間中標公司的產品,分別是圖像和文本過濾技術,合二為一成為「綠壩.花季護航」,今年七一之後強制安裝或附加於全國發售的個人電腦上;年初「家電下鄉」的所有電腦,則更早一步都安裝了。售後服務、技術升級和橫向開發,都由中標公司包辦;工信部下一開發目標是把同一過濾軟件應用於所有手機。如此,政府不僅負起「挑選贏家」的角色,還通過產品搭售(bundling),製造了一個龐大的壟斷者,獨霸網頁過濾軟件市場。在外國,這個市場的競爭非常劇烈,產品精益求精,因為很多父母都靠這種軟件保護小孩的上網安全,需求很大。(昨文提及的TopTenReviews,便有此種產品十個不同牌子的品評報告,就產品的五十個技術及使用特點進行評比,消費者一目了然。)工信部選了「綠壩」之後,內地其他品牌難與爭鋒,今後大概只能退出這個市場。這便引起法律問題。下面指出,工信部違法,違得很精準。

我國《反不正當競爭法》第七條規定:「政府及其所屬部門不得濫用行政權力,限定他人購買其指定的經營者的商品,限制其他經營者的經營活動。」「綠壩」雖由政府購買,(今年)「免費」安裝在所有個人電腦上,但政府用的是公帑,等同代替所有人購買指定的經營者的產品「綠壩」,因此違反了上述條款。此外,同法第十二條規定:「經營者銷售商品,不得違背購買者意願,搭售商品或者附加其他不合理條件。」工信部強制所有個人電腦銷售商進行產品搭售,干犯此法律條款。又此法第三十條明言:「政府及其所屬部門違反本法第七條規定者,由上級機關責令其改正;情節嚴重的,由同級或者上級機關直接責任人員給予行政處分。」現在工信部嚴重違反本法第七條及十二條,故按此第三十條規定,國務院總理溫家寶須予工信部部長李毅中適當處分並要求改正,方為守法。

另外,我國《反壟斷法》第一章第八條、第五章第三十二條,皆明確禁止「行政機關限定或者變相限定單位或者個人經營、購買、使用其指定的經營者提供的商品。」或「濫用權力以排除、限制競爭」。此法禁止政府助長壟斷的形成,與前法禁止政府欽定品牌、禁止政府或公司進行產品搭售,二者相關但不相同。工信部強推「綠壩」,已嚴重違反這兩條經濟法。但是,更大的問題,出在憲政層面。

現在大家已經知道,「綠壩」過濾的內容,四分一是淫穢,四分三是政治,收窄了憲法保障的公民政治權利和自由特別是言論自由、出版自由和通訊自由。這種收窄非不可以,但須依循正式法律程序。我國於二千年三月通過的《立法法》,清楚訂出限制公民政治權利和人身自由的合法方式。此法第八條第五點規定:「對公民政治權利的剝奪、限制人身自由的強制措施和處罰」只能制定法律。第九條則進一步申明:「尚未制定法律的,全國人大及其常委有權作出決定,先行制定行政法規,但是有關公民政治權利的剝奪和限制人身自由的強制措施和處罰等事項除外。」由此可見,我國有法律規定,要削弱或限制憲法規定的公民自由和政治權利,有非常嚴格的程序,絕不能由一個行政部門說了算。工信部違反了這一點;如果人大不予追究,亦是同樣犯法。

中共隨意限制公民的政治權利和人身自由,一向如同「食生菜」,根本不當一回事。昨聞發起〈○八憲章〉的民運人士劉曉波被控煽動顛覆國家,罪狀之一竟是「推翻社會主義」,更令人咋舌。相比,為推「綠壩」,工信部一氣違反四大法律——反不正當競爭法、反壟斷法、立法法、憲法,實不足為奇。
常言道:知法犯法,罪無可恕。那麼,立法犯法,又如何?「綠壩」事上,中央帶頭立法犯法,地方政府和特區政府,會否「緊跟」呢?港區全國人大代表們,有沒有意見呢?

註:1.見《中國通信在線》網站該日登載的〈信產部發出關於徵集綠色上網過濾軟件的通知〉,通知內文聲明是「緊急」的;信息產業部於○八年三月併入工業和信息化部(工信部); 2.見《中國政府採購網》項目編號MIILR-2008-01。

以言入罪不能禁絕異見 民主改革才可長治久安

【明報專訊】內地異見人士劉曉波去年底被公安人員帶走,下落不明6個多月之後,昨日新華社報道,劉曉波涉嫌煽動顛覆國家政權罪,已被北京公安機關逮捕。報道並無提及劉曉波具體涉及什麼違法事項,不過由他去年底參與發起簽署《零八憲章》,即遭當局帶走羈押,因此有理由相信是與《零八憲章》有關。劉曉波這次被捕是另一次以言入罪事件,而從近期種種事態看來,內地愈在經濟領域取得成就,政治尺度卻愈見收緊,對社會的控制也愈見嚴厲,這些做法,絕對不利於國家的進步和發展。

言論自由憲法賦予 何罪之有

要求中共領導改革 何罪之有

新華社的報道說,「據公安機關偵查掌握,近年來,劉曉波以造謠、誹謗等方式煽動顛覆國家政權、推翻社會主義制度,違反了《中華人民共和國刑法》,涉嫌煽動顛覆國家政權罪,北京市公安機關依法對劉曉波立案偵查,2009年6月23日經檢察機關批准逮捕。經初步審查,劉曉波已對公安機關指控的犯罪事實供認不諱。」這個報道內容只列出劉曉波的「罪行」,並無提出具體事項,因此無從判斷劉曉波涉嫌煽動顛覆國家政權罪,是否有確切事據。

從報道看來,當局對劉曉波的指控,並非單指《零八憲章》的事,而是涉及他「近年來的造謠、誹謗」。造謠和誹謗應該屬於言論範疇,因此當局若以此逮捕劉曉波,是徹頭徹尾的以言入罪。如果劉曉波因而罪成判囚,則是文字獄了。

303名內地人士,去年12月10日參與發起簽署的《零八憲章》,主要內容是闡述自由、人權、民主、憲政等基本概念,主張修改憲法、實行分權制衡,實現立法民主、司法獨立,主張結社、集會、言論、宗教自由等。首先,言論自由是現行憲法就賦予人民的基本權利,人民就國家的發展提出要求和主張,何罪之有;另外,《零八憲章》的要求,都是溫和、務實、理性的主張,是希望在中國共產黨領導下實施改革,何罪之有。

《零八憲章》發起簽署後,雖然公安人員帶走了劉曉波,一些參與者也遭到滋擾,個別人士至今還失去聯絡,但是6個多月以來,全球已有超過8600人簽署,顯示憲章的主張得到廣泛認同,有志一同的人並未因為官方打壓而卻步。

劉曉波現年53歲,20年前的六四事件後期,他與侯德健等4人在天安門廣場絕食,支持學生。六四事件以鎮壓告終之後,劉曉波被捕,入獄兩年,1996年又因為撰文支持民運,被勞動教養3年,之後仍然經常發表文章,抨擊時政,關注民間維權。因此坐牢以外的日子,劉曉波是內地當局的重點監控對象,每年一些敏感時期,例如六四周年、兩會、黨代會等,他都會短暫失去自由,不得離家、訪友,甚至切斷其電話、網絡通訊等。劉曉波再次被捕,從新華社報道較廣泛地陳述其「罪行」看來,他再被投獄幾可肯定。

不過,縱使當局關了一個劉曉波,《零八憲章》的訴求不會因而消失。如果中共只是一味打壓異見人士,罔顧他們所提出要求主張的合理性和適當性,則大陸社會只會長期處於「壓力鍋」狀態,就看哪一日炸開來,釀成重大傷亡而已。

「北京價值」不涉打壓自由

高壓鞏固政權不能久遠

經過31年改革開放,中國經濟迅速發展,已經躋身全球第三大經濟體。去年美國次按危機觸發金融海嘯,歐美等主要經濟體迄今仍在喘息,中國受到直接衝擊的程度輕微,經濟持續呈現較強勁增長勢頭,因此在西方國家掀起了所謂「北京價值」的探討,對於肯定中國美言之處,不在少見,個別中國領導人對此,言談間也顯得有點志得意滿。不過,我們認為,西方一些人士就算對中國的經濟成就總結出「北京價值」,認為有值得取法之處,但是這個概念肯定不包括打壓政治異見者。近期西方國家基於有求於中國,調低關注中國人權的調門,不代表他們認同中國打壓異見者,只是他們的現實主義抬頭而已。

以中國現有物質條件和經濟實力,其實給當政者提供了一個主動推行政治改革、建立一個更民主制度的有利空間。不過這些年所見,中國經濟愈崛起,對政治的尺度、對社會的控制,卻愈見收緊和嚴厲,完全看不到當政者利用較好的形勢,主動推動政治改革的象。但是,現有體制無法解決各種各樣的矛盾、貪污腐敗等愈益深重的局面,卻是人盡皆知,全國人民和國運宛如放在裏面翻滾澎湃的壓力鍋之上,有識之士對此憂心忡忡。

藉高壓統治鞏固政權,短期或許可以做到,但是長期而言,肯定會出大問題。歷史上,無一個獨裁腐敗的政權,可以靠高壓保住江山。中共帶領中國經濟改革所取得成就,無人質疑,中國現在需要中共帶領在政治改革方面,建立與經濟格局相適應的政治體制。我們認為,中共與異見人士溝通、對話、交流,逐步推動某些民主改革,必可獲得廣大知識分子及其他各界人士的支援與合作,中國必可因此長治久安。鎮壓不可能解決民運及維權運動的訴求,順應民主化的歷史洪流,才可鞏固中共的政權。但願當政者能夠拿出魄力,開創中國萬世太平的基業。

2009年5月5日 星期二

Recession to Cause Permanent UK Jobs Exodus, Study Reveals

  • 81% of large firms are considering moving major functions abroad
  • Nearly a third of UK jobs at global corporations could go overseas
  • UK competitiveness eroded by poor skills, high taxes, excessive costs and stifling regulations
The UK’s largest multinational companies are preparing to move more business functions overseas, placing a third of their UK jobs at risk, new research by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants reveals.
Business leaders at UK-based global firms believe the potential exists for nearly a third (29%) of their current UK jobs to be transferred to lower-cost economies by 2015, blaming the dual-impact of the economic crisis and decreasing UK competitiveness for the exodus.
David Stern, UK Managing Partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, commented: “The recession has prompted our largest companies to re-examine the UK as a business location in terms of skills, cost and infrastructure.
Globalisation is enabling them to consider unprecedented levels of offshoring across all aspects of their business, which could result in permanent damage to the UK job market and economy."
The study, Shipping Out, conducted among senior decision makers from 200 of the largest UK-based international companies, also reveals the erosion of the UK’s competitiveness in a globalising economy.
UK firms pack up and goThe vast majority (81%) of the UK’s largest multinational firms are planning or considering moving at least one major business function overseas by 2015. The study reveals a massive acceleration of international outsourcing and offshoring, with more than half of companies having already moved or considering moving support functions such as IT (68%), finance (58%) and HR (53%) overseas. More alarmingly, however, the study shows that functions previously considered as core and permanently linked with the UK are now being moved abroad. Although only a minority (13%) of firms have Head Offices outside the UK, another two-fifths (38%) of the UK’s multinational companies are currently considering the move in a bid to stay competitive.Additionally, more than half of firms interviewed have moved, or are considering moving, key business functions such as customer service (64%), R&D (61%) and sales management (59%) abroad.The study also highlights the vulnerability of British manufacturing, as nearly three quarters (72%) of these large firms have moved, or are considering moving, a proportion of this function overseas. Indeed one in seven companies (15%) has already relocated manufacturing abroad, and business leaders recognise the potential for more than a quarter (28%) of their remaining UK output to go abroad by 2015, which could affect an equivalent proportion of their current UK employees. David Stern, UK Managing Partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, commented: “This trend towards offshoring is markedly different from the international outsourcing we have seen to date, with both knowledge economy jobs and core business functions now being exported to economies which are more competitive in the global environment. “These are unlikely to return once the economy picks up, a trend which threatens a permanent rise in UK unemployment, leading to falling revenues and ultimately a decline in GDP.”What’s driving jobs abroad?Companies are being forced to offshore jobs in response to the economic crisis, and to secure longer-term competitiveness in an increasingly global economy. Firms do not feel this would hamper their operational capability, and indeed would enhance their competitiveness and ability to thrive in a globalising world. Nearly half (49%) of respondents believe that their firm would be significantly more competitive if they moved more business functions outside the UK, and over three-quarters (76%) feel that by doing so they would be better positioned to take advantage of globalisation. More than half (52%) of the companies interviewed state that offshoring, outsourcing and sourcing to/from low-cost economies are absolutely critical to enhancing competitiveness and hence to ensuring the future health and success of their business. Meanwhile, more than three-quarters (78%) of UK-based global companies already considering offshoring functions cite cost structure competitiveness as a fundamental driving force behind the move, demonstrating the importance of the macroeconomic setting to these decisions.The erosion of UK competitivenessThe Roland Berger study reveals that UK competitiveness in the global marketplace is being steadily eroded by a lack of skilled personnel, excessive operating and infrastructure costs, high taxes and a stifling regulatory burden. The strong majority (77%) of companies highlight hefty operating costs, including high wages, as a key factor. The next biggest contributor to the erosion of UK competitiveness, cited by more than two-thirds of firms (69%), is existing high tax rates, followed closely by the regulatory burden (66%) and low domestic market growth rates (65%), all of which combine to make overseas environments more attractive. Additionally, over half of firms (58%) believe the UK’s competitiveness is being eroded by a current lack of skilled personnel across the value chain, which they expect to persist into the future. David Stern, UK Managing Partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants commented: “The Government must help UK companies and employees become more competitive in the global market place, otherwise the trickle of jobs moving offshore will become a torrent. “This will require reducing bureaucracy, enhancing the skills of the labour pool and alleviating the cost burden on business, but this will present a huge challenge in the current economic climate. "In the meantime, companies should identify those parts of their business that need to stay close to their customers and then assess the best way of configuring their operations and support functions to achieve the greatest cost efficiency and flexibility."

2009年4月22日 星期三

Global economic crisis hits German sex industry


By Erik Kirschbaum

http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/rpSlideshows?articleId=USRTXE7QN#a=1


BERLIN (Reuters) - It did not take long for the world financial crisis to affect the world's oldest profession in Germany.


In one of the few countries where prostitution is legal, and unusually transparent, the industry has responded with an economic stimulus package of its own: modern marketing tools, rebates and gimmicks to boost falling demand.


Some brothels have cut prices or added free promotions while others have introduced all-inclusive flat-rate fees. Free shuttle buses, discounts for seniors and taxi drivers, as well as "day passes" are among marketing strategies designed to keep business going.


"Times are tough for us too," said Karin Ahrens, who manages the "Yes, Sir" brothel in Hanover. She told Reuters revenue had dropped by 30 percent at her establishment while turnover had fallen by as much as 50 percent at other clubs.


"We're definitely feeling the crisis. Clients are being tight with their money. They're afraid. You can't charge for the extras any more and there is pressure to cut prices. Everyone wants a deal. Special promotions are essential these days."


Germany has about 400,000 professional prostitutes. Official figures do not distinguish between the sexes and the number of male prostitutes is not known, but they account for a small fraction of the total and are treated the same under the law.


In 2002, new legislation allowed prostitutes to advertise and to enter into formal labor contracts. It opened the way for them to obtain health insurance, previously refused if they listed their true profession.


Annual revenues are about 14 billion euros ($18 billion), according to an estimate by the Verdi services union. Taxes on prostitution are an important source of income for some cities.


Prostitution is also legal and regulated in the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Hungary, Greece, Turkey and in some parts of Australia, and the U.S. state of Nevada.


In other countries, such as Luxembourg, Latvia, Denmark, Belgium and Finland, it is legal but brothels and pimping are not.


"CREATIVE SOLUTIONS"


Berlin's "Pussy Club" has attracted media attention with its headline-grabbing "flat rate" -- a 70-euro admission charge for unlimited food, drink and sex between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.


"You've got to come up with creative solutions these days," said club manager Stefan, who requested his surname not be published. "We're feeling the economic crisis, too, even though business has fortunately been more or less okay for us so far.


"Our offer might sound like it's too good to be true, but it's real. You can eat as much as you want, drink as much as you want and have as much sex as you want."


Stefan, who runs other establishments in Heidelberg and Wuppertal besides the Berlin club, said the flat rate had helped keep the 30 women working in each location fully employed.


Other novel ideas used by brothels and prostitutes include loyalty cards, group sex parties and rebates for golf players. Hamburg's "GeizHaus" is especially proud of its discount 38.50 euro price. The city has Germany's most famous red-light district, the Reeperbahn, in the notorious St. Pauli district.


Anke Christiansen, manager of the "GeizHaus," said the effects of the economic crisis were clear. "The regular customers who used to come by two or three times a week are only coming by once or twice a week now."


A "GeizHaus" client, who gave his name as Pascal, said: "Naturally we're all feeling the effects of the crisis." He added that he could no longer afford his usual two or three visits a week.


Guenter Krull, manager of the "FKK Villa" in Hanover, concurred. "The girls are complaining, too, because business is bad and I worry that it's all going to get even worse.


CONTINGENCY PLANS


Ecki Krumeich, manager of upmarket Artemis Club in Berlin, said he resisted pressure to cut prices, although senior citizens and taxi drivers get a 50-percent discount on the 80-euro admission fee on Sundays and Mondays.


"Naturally, we're keeping an eye on the overall economic situation and making contingency plans," said Krumeich, who said his "wellness club" is one of the largest in Europe with about 70 prostitutes.


"Our philosophy is: we provide an important service and even in a recession there are some things people won't do without. Other downmarket places might cut prices but we decided we won't do that. In fact, we raised prices by 10 euros in January."


Stephanie Klee, a prostitute in Berlin and former leader of the German association of sex workers, said even if a few luxury brothels were weathering the storm because of their wealthy regular clientele, many were struggling.


"Just about everyone's turning to advertising in one form or another," she said. "If the consumer electronics shop and the optician come out with rebates and special promotions, why shouldn't we try the same thing?"


While she and her colleagues might have had five or six clients per day a year ago that had fallen to one or even none.


Klee worries, however, that the crisis has led to "price dumping" in some cities -- fees have fallen as low as 30 euros in some parts of Berlin and elsewhere, she said.


"You'll find a lot of customers trying to negotiate prices down now," said Klee. "A 30-year-old came up to me and said 'I lost my job so will you give me a discount?'."


She and others said they were alarmed that amateur prostitutes -- mostly women with low-paid careers -- were increasingly turning to prostitution to make ends meet.


"More and more women are moonlighting on the weekends," said Ahrens. "They're not able to get by with their main job and are in pretty dire straights. For some it works out okay but it's tough for some others and they often don't stay very long.






In Japan, even mobsters bite the recession bullet


TOKYO (AFP) — They made their money with sex, drugs and gambling but then invested much of it in high finance. Now Japan's yakuza have their back to the wall as the economic crisis takes aim.


Just like the legitimate businesses they have muscled into, Japan's mafia are being squeezed by the steepest economic downturn in decades, and as profits have plunged, management has been thinning out the ranks.

One of the victims of the downturn is Taro Hiramatsu, a heavily tattooed retired gangster in his 50s who said he never felt all that comfortable with the underworld's new high-flying ways to begin with.

"The yakuza have been hit by the financial crisis because they?ve invested in the stock market among other things," said Hiramatsu, the number two of his crime gang until he was unceremoniously kicked out last year.

"For yakuza today, money buys everything, including senior positions," Hiramatsu -- not his real name -- told AFP in a recent interview, his intricately inked arms crossed defiantly over a potbelly.

"In the past, your rank was decided on courage and the sacrifices you made to the group, including being ready to give up your life," he said.

His own career as a gangster hit the skids, he said, when the cash dried up and he could no longer pay his 30,000-dollar monthly dues to the syndicate.

About one third of mid-level chiefs in his crime group, he said, have lost their jobs over the past year, many fleeced of their possessions with only their group insignia tattooed indelibly on their chests.

"Organizations are taking this economic downturn as an opportunity to sort of prune the ranks for the first time in years," said Jake Adelstein, a former Yomiuri Shimbun daily crime reporter and yakuza expert.

"It?s unheard of, the sort of numbers of yakuza who are being laid off."

Hiramatsu now works as a truck driver and, in his spare time, is learning to use computers and play the guitar -- despite a missing pinky he chopped off years ago with a kitchen knife to atone for a sin he prefers not to discuss.

Hiramatsu is proudly old-school. His broad tatooed back features a samurai warrior clasping a knife between his teeth beneath a rippling black cod. His arms are laced with sakura cherry flowers, an ancient symbol of Japan.

Sitting cross-legged in a Tokyo house, he says he doesn't have much time for the new generation of mobsters who have traded the mean streets for the corporate boardrooms, and their nine-milimetre automatics for the Nikkei-225.

In a year when exports and share prices have halved in the world's second-biggest economy and corporate giants have plunged into the red, he reckons it may be time for gangsters to dust off their ancient code of ethics.

"I think that a majority of yakuza are reflecting on whether throwing away traditional for capitalist-style values was the best thing to do," said Hiramatsu, musing on the modern ways of his centuries-old brotherhood.

"Bushido, the yakuza's samurai spirit, is disappearing. The disappearance of those values is not only bad for yakuza but for Japan as a whole."

The yakuza, who trace their roots to samurai gone astray during the 17th-century Edo period, traditionally relied on gambling, prostitution, loan-sharking and protection rackets as their bread and butter.

They have operated relatively openly, entertaining close ties with politicians and lobby groups, while police have tolerated their existence as long as they have stayed on their turf and kept down street crime.

Although police will at times go after their members, Yakuza groups themselves are not illegal. They openly operate from large headquarters, and their exploits draw large followings in manga cartoons and fanzines.

Today Japanese organised crime counts about 82,600 members, according to the National Police Agency -- nearly half of them with the huge Kobe-based Yamaguchi-gumi, sometimes dubbed the "Wal-Mart of crime syndicates".

Thing started to change in 1992 as Japan enforced new laws cracking down on their fiefdoms, crucially holding the black-suited crime bosses liable for offences committed by their foot soldiers.

The yakuza turned to white-collar crime such as money laundering, deposit fraud, cybercrime and extorting huge sums from blue-chip companies by threatening to show up at their shareholder meetings.

Profits were reinvested in stocks, construction and real estate, but also new sectors like entertainment and media, or squirreled away in offshore accounts, say experts who have studied Japanese organised crime.

As Japan relaxed financial regulations after the asset price bubble burst in the early 1990s, plunging the country into recession, the yakuza set up a host of front companies.
Adelstein said some gangs now resemble legitimate corporate giants.

"People think of the yakuza as wielding swords and having tattoos and missing fingers," he said. "What you should be thinking of the modern-day yakuza is Goldman Sachs with guns."

The yakuza collectively became Japan's largest private equity investors, with a cashflow that allows them to "do whatever they want," said Adelstein, who estimates their income at tens of billions of dollars.

"They are very good at gambling, and the Japanese stock market especially is like a huge casino," he said.

"They have their own securities and auditing firms, their own money to come in and invest. And they're going to win every time."

Tomohiko Suzuki, an author and a former reporter for a yakuza magazine, said around 50 front companies of various crime syndicates are listed on the Japanese stock market and the New York-based Nasdaq.

About 1,000 unlisted front companies have also been identified by police in Tokyo alone as the yakuza have moved into everything from funeral and marriage services to talent agencies, according to Suzuki.

Even management books have been written for the yakuza, including one by the former head of the Yamaguchi-gumi, who is now in jail.

"It?s a lot like any management book you would read by the head of General Motors, except he makes some interesting observations," said Adelstein. "Like, 'the reason we are the most powerful crime organization is, we are the most violent'."

For his part, ex-mobster Hiramatsu doesn't entirely regret closing the door on his past.
"I am nostalgic for the old days," he said, "but I also have a distaste for it. I don?t think I?m suited for the new type of yakuza anyway."

2009年4月3日 星期五

S&P's price to 10-year average earnings (P/E10)

Historic Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio using reported earnings (as opposed to earnings estimates), that for "earnings" part can be found on Standard & Poor's website, where the latest earnings are posted on the earnings page.

The number we want is the sum of the reported earnings for the previous four quarters. Since the first quarter of 2009 earnings aren't available, we'll use the Q4 2008 earnings, which, subject to revision, is $14.97 per share (as of March 31). Thus the 2008 year-end P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is the December closing price of 903.25 divided by 14.97, which gives us the stunning P/E ratio of 60.3 — the highest in the history of the S&P Composite since 1871.

The average P/E over this timeframe is only 15. In fact, at the top of the Tech Bubble in 2000, the conventional P/E ratio was a mere 30. It peaked north of 47 two years after the market topped out.


If we calculate earnings based on Standard & Poor's earnings estimate for the first quarter (again, as of March 31), the number drops to $8.18. That gives us a P/E at yesterday's close of 102.

As these examples illustrate, in times of critical importance, the conventional P/E ratio often lags the index to the point of being useless as a value indicator. "Why the lag?" you may wonder. "How can the P/E be at a record high after the price has fallen so far?" The explanation is simple. Earnings fell far faster. In fact, Q4 earnings were negative — something that has never happened before in the history of the S&P Composite.

The P/E10 RatioLegendary economist and value investor Benjamin Graham noticed the same bizarre P/E behavior during the Roaring Twenties and subsequent market crash. Graham collaborated with David Dodd to devise a more accurate way to calculate the market's value, which they discussed in their 1934 classic book, Security Analysis. They attributed the illogical P/E ratios to temporary and sometimes extreme fluctuations in the business cycle. Their solution was to divide the price by the 10-year average of earnings, which we'll call the P/E10. In recent years, Yale professor Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance, has reintroduced the P/E10 to a wider audience of investors. As the accompanying chart illustrates, this ratio closely tracks the real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite.



With this method, the historic P/E average is 16.3, with a March monthly average P/E10 of 13.5 and a monthly close at P/E10 of 14.2. The ratio in this chart is doubly smoothed (10-year average of earnings and monthly averages of daily closing prices). Thus the fluctuations during the month aren't especially relevant (e.g., the difference between the March average and closing P/E10).


Of course, the historic P/E10 has never flat-lined on the average. On the contrary, over the long haul it swings dramatically between the over- and under-valued ranges. If we look at the major peaks and troughs in the P/E10, we see that the high during the Tech Bubble was the all-time high of 44 in December 1999. The 1929 high of 32 comes in at a distant second. The secular bottoms in 1921, 1932, 1942 and 1982 saw P/E10 ratios in the single digits.